Amazon in Peril

Q: You helped author a report that looks at the effects of climate change on the Amazon. How should we think about the Amazon? Is it a forest? A river? An ecosystem? When I say the Amazon, I am referring to the Amazon basin. That’s what you would draw on a map—a huge collection of rivers that feed the Amazon River, which drains into the Atlantic. It includes high, snow-capped mountains, tropical lowlands and floodplains. But I also see it as a system that connects fresh water, forest, animals and people. And all of it is connected with climate. That’s one of our main messages: Everything is interconnected.

Q: How do you expect climate change to affect this system? Unfortunately, climate change has already arrived. For our report, we conducted simulations using historical data on flow, temperature and precipitation from 1981 to 2010. Using time series modeling, which statistically analyzes data over time and predicts future values, we forecast likely outcomes through 2050. The results showed us something that is happening already, and that will get worse: The Amazon is going to get drier. The projected annual flow showed reductions of up to 48% in most of the basin. Overall, it will get more droughts and longer droughts, though some areas could see river-flow increases of up to 11%.

We’re already experiencing this. In the last three years, the Amazon River has seen the largest declines in water levels in over a century. We’re seeing boats stuck, fisheries failing, freshwater dolphins dying. We are not used to extended periods of no rain.

Q: So these changes to the Amazon hydrology will affect people, too? How? Many communities depend on the water for drinking and for food. For some, fish is the main source of protein. And more than 80% of the food fish caught in the Amazon are migratory species. Also, much of the Amazon doesn’t have roads, because people travel via the river.

Large areas of Amazonia are territories of Indigenous people who have been there for a very long time. Their beliefs, their cultures, their spiritual lives are built around this water. But so are markets. A lot of grains and food exports get to the Atlantic via the Amazon and its tributaries. There are important Amazon River port cities, like Iquitos in Peru or Manaus in Brazil. And many South American countries depend on hydropower that comes from Amazon basin water.

So the impacts of losing water are huge. Pollutants can get concentrated and drinking water is compromised. Fisheries are depleted. People become isolated. We have seen this already. In our recent droughts, thousands of people couldn’t get to a store. Helicopters had to drop food and medicine. And in Ecuador, low water led to electricity cuts of more than 10 hours a day. Impacts were felt locally, but also in places that weren’t even that close to the main stem of the Amazon.

Q: Are there even broader effects? I read that the Amazon generates one in every five raindrops on Earth. That’s true. It’s a huge system. The Amazonian forest produces humidity that provides rain to places outside the Amazon—for example, Bogotá, where I live. Scientists believe that around 30% of the rain that falls on Bogotá may come from the Amazon. And south toward Argentina and southern Brazil, a lot of the agricultural production depends on rain originating in the Amazon. So climate change in the Amazon eventually could affect the climate system of a large part of the South American continent.

Q: Your report doesn’t just deliver bad news; it makes suggestions. What would you like to see happen? We believe that the solutions can be provided by nature. Our research shows that it is important to focus on maintaining the Amazon system’s connectivity. That can reduce the impact of drought, because even if one area is dry, the river will still be flowing. Floodplains can be critical, because they can act like a sponge and hold water. Wetlands can also store water in vegetation and soil, then release it slowly in a drought. If we maintain the riparian forests, maintain the wetlands, maintain the floodplains, the impacts of climate change will be mitigated. The systems will be more resilient.

To protect this connectivity, we need the nine nations that are home to Amazonia to collaborate, but we also need collaboration at other levels. Local governments, municipalities, national parks and NGOs like TNC. And coordination among Indigenous territories is critical. Many of the people who are neighbors between countries are Indigenous people. If anybody understands how this system works, it’s the people who have lived there for centuries.

So we’re promoting locally led, community-led, Indigenous-led adaptation plans. We need to appreciate the knowledge that Indigenous people have and listen to their ideas. And not just listen—act on them.